Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar!
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Personal areaWe will remember the past week for the surge in the US inflation and the soothing comments of the Federal Reserve’s Chair Jerome Powell. Which news and trade opportunities await us in the upcoming days?
With the European Central Bank’s meeting on Thursday, the EUR will be the highlight of the week. The ECB will likely say more about its new strategy. The bank’s officials have already hinted that they plan to allow inflation to overshoot the 2% target. This would mean that the regulator won’t tighten policy prematurely. The EUR might weaken in EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP, and EUR/NZD.
Top US companies will continue hitting the market with earnings reports. This time we’ll hear from J&J, Coca-Cola, eBay, Microsoft, Intel, AT&T, and Twitter. The broad market gauge, S&P 500 (US500) remains near the record highs. The Fed’s assurances about the continuing monetary support represent the main bullish factor. The main risks for the uptrend are the spread of the coronavirus delta variant and the surging inflation. Analysts at Morgan Stanley warned that the odds of a 15% correction in the US stock market are rising as the valuation of technology stocks has become too high. Still, until the decisive technical signals arrive, it’s too early to talk about sell trades.
Oil had the worst week since March. Uncertainty around the prospect for an OPEC+ deal to increase supply has clouded the short-term outlook. The United Arab Emirates is close to a deal that would allow it to boost output in the coming months. On the upside, the demand is expected to rise, and Citigroup sees Brent (XBR/USD) above $80 a barrel even if oil exporters agree to increase production.
Higher inflation in the US and cool comments of the Fed supported gold. If the precious metal manages to overcome resistance at $1838, the targets will be at $1850/$1853.
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