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Turkish Lira Is at Record Lows. How to Trade It?

Turkish Lira Is at Record Lows. How to Trade It?

Updated

USD/TRY belongs to the exotic group of Forex currency pairs, that’s why traders don’t trade it regularly. However, these days this pair is in the focus of all the trading community!

What happened?

The Turkish lira dropped to the all-time low of just over 13.00 as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continued to defend the huge interest rate cuts by the central bank: three times since September. That drove up inflation to 20%. The Turkish lira has lost almost half of its value this year, making it the world's worst-performing currency.

What’s next?

Credit Suisse forecasts USD/TRY to reach 14.00 soon. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) needs to make a sizable rate increase to reverse the downtrend in USD/TRY. However, it is unlikely to happen soon.

What else?

Turkey is not the only country that will face an economic crisis. Indeed, the prospect for higher interest rates in the US is a negative factor for all these countries that have debt in US dollars. The Federal Reserve is expected to start slowing down the pace of its asset purchases already this month. Besides, the central bank plans to raise rates as soon as June 2022. It’s a bullish factor for the USD.

Tech analysis

USD/TRY has reversed down after rallying for so long and dropped. However, it has stopped ahead of the significant support level of 12.00. The pair won’t cross it on the first try. The most likely scenario is that it bounces off and turns to the upside. The move above 12.50 will clear the way to the resistance zone of 13.00 and 13.15. Support levels are 12.00 and 11.50.

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