Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar!
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Personal areaThe US dollar has seen some heavy fluctuation recently. Although it gained some strength here and there, mostly, it has been going weak against its main peers in the Forex market. Let’s observe how it behaved against the JPY, EUR, and GBP, and draw some key levels to aim at.
This currency pair has been going downwards for the last eight months. Since May 2020 when it reached 110.00, it was being dragged by bears to eventually drop below 103.00. The last episode took place in December. By mid-January, the pair was already at the upside of the mid-term downtrend, but it was too early to announce the trend change. In February, USD/JPY broke the resistance of 105.00 leaving the trend. Therefore, we have to discard the old trend and look for new horizons: if the USD becomes strong again, the entire distance to 110.00 is there for bulls to take over. However, be prepared that it won’t be an uptrend as straight as it was going downwards since summer. The softness of the USD is a more likely impact factor. Therefore, a large sideways trend above 103.00 is a very probable thing to happen.
Against the GBP, the USD has seen little but losing value. The rise of GBP/USD has been going especially steadily since September 2020. The pair almost reached 1.39 and still looks pretty aggressive to the upside. As the weakness of the USD is most likely to stay, going up to 1.40 may not be an unreasonable expectation. However, noting the straight upward trajectory it has been in the last months, a cautious approach suggests there might be a local correction down to 1.36 to let bulls rest before they go for another victory.
With the EUR, the softness of the USD gives a similar layout but with a different tactical disposition. As EUR/USD has been going upwards, it reached 1.2350 at the beginning of January, but bears dragged it down to 1.1950. Currently, the nearest resistance to look for is 1.22, and EUR/USD is very likely to reach it soon. In the mid-term, if the marked channel stays in power, 1.2350 will be crossed in the course of the coming bullish wave.
